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Introduction to the Overbet turn

 The domino terbaik overbet on the turn is in a way what Omaha is to hold’em, the future of poker that never comes. This move may well have been presented, justified, explained over and over again, it is still struggling to win on the lower limits of the NL 50. It therefore constitutes a formidable project for technical improvement knowing that the opponents who meet him will have little experience with him.

It immediately puts a certain psychological tension: the pot gets big, mistakes are costly. Add to that a leverage effect: you threaten to bet again (very) dearly on the river. The adversary will often have the feeling of being “own”, in other words the impression of being exploited because not sufficiently prepared. We will develop here the theoretical justifications of such a move while reflecting on the practical applications. The theory is based on the application of MDF (minimum defense frequency) to your opponent and it is logical that I will start by presenting it to you.

The theory of MDF (Minimum Defense Frequency)

This is the minimum percentage of his range that your opponent must defend against your bet so as not to be exploited. I would like to point out right away that this theory has exceptions but it applies quite well in polarized range configurations such as overbet turn strategies.

To find the value of MDF, just apply the following formula: 

  • MDF = (1 – A) * 100
  • A = Risk / reward formula.

Yes, we have to take a little detour. This risk / reward formula determines from what percentage of opposing folds a bet from us becomes immediately profitable. The detail is as follows: risk / (risk + reward). 

To find the MDF, it is then enough to subtract this result from 1 then to multiply it by 100 and this will give the percentage of defense necessary for the opponent not to be exploited. Let’s take an example for clarity:

You have a € 10 pot in front of you and you bet € 15 to win it. What is the MDF for your opponent? 

  • You risk € 15 for a reward of € 10, the risk / reward formula gives us 15 / (15 + 10) = 0.6. 
  • Its MDF is therefore (1 – 0.6) * 100 = 40.

The naughty MDF is 40%. If it drops below this value, it is exploited and the overbet will play on this “obligation” of defense on its part.


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